Rybakina beats Gauff to set up a US Open final against Sabalenka
The Kazakh second seed will take the world number one ranking on Monday whatever happens on Saturday, ending a 99-week reign.
Elena Rybakina came from a set down to beat Coco Gauff and reach the US Open final, where she will meet Aryna Sabalenka in the first meeting of the tournament's top two seeds in a New York final since 2013.
Rybakina has already won the larger prize. Her 3-6 6-4 6-4 victory guarantees she will end Sabalenka's 99-week reign as world number one and take the top ranking herself when the list is updated on Monday. Saturday's match decides whether she takes the trophy as well.
Silencing a partisan crowd
The Kazakh second seed had to win this one against the building as much as against the opponent. Gauff, the American fourth seed, had the crowd, and she had the first set.
Rybakina's response was to slow everything down rather than swing harder.
"I took a deep breath and just told myself I needed to fight and show good tennis," she said.
At 27, she is chasing a third Grand Slam title after Wimbledon in 2022 and the Australian Open in January — a final she won against Sabalenka, which is the detail that makes Saturday interesting.
Sabalenka's answer to a difficult year
The top seed arrived at the semi-final with questions attached and left having answered most of them, overpowering the home favourite Jessica Pegula 7-5 6-2.
It was tighter than the scoreline suggests for a set. Sabalenka bristled early as unforced errors crept in and Pegula struck the ball cleanly from the start. Once the Belarusian broke decisively at 6-5 to take the opener, the match changed character: she hit 29 winners in the second set to Pegula's 12, and the American had no reply.
"I was super desperate," Sabalenka said afterwards.
"It feels for me, talking about Grand Slams, like a last push of the season," she added. "I wanted it badly to go to the finals, and of course, I want to go all the way."
That desperation had a basis. After winning the Sunshine Double at Indian Wells and Miami in March, she lost in the quarter-finals at Roland Garros and went out in the fourth round at Wimbledon. She has dropped one set on the way to this final.
What each of them is playing for
The stakes are unusually specific on both sides of the net.
Sabalenka is seeking a third consecutive US Open singles title, which would make her the third woman in the Open era to manage it. She has not lost in New York since the 2023 final, when Gauff beat her. Her win over Pegula also broke the Open era record for consecutive Grand Slam hard-court finals — she has reached every major final on the surface since the 2023 Australian Open.
Rybakina is playing for a first US Open title and for the satisfaction of taking the number one ranking off the player across the net in the same week.
For Pegula, 32 and the only semi-finalist without a major, this is a familiar ending. Sabalenka denied her a first Grand Slam in the 2024 final and beat her in last year's semi-finals, though Pegula had won their most recent meeting in June.
Pegula's verdict on the player who beat her was generous and probably accurate.
"I do think she probably would have beaten 99% of people," she said. "Probably the best match she's played this year."
A final the tournament wanted
Top seed against second seed is rarer than it sounds. The last time the top two women's seeds contested a US Open final was 2013, when Serena Williams beat Victoria Azarenka.
The stylistic match-up is the draw. Sabalenka's game is built on weight of shot — the 29 winners against Pegula is the number that describes it — and she has spent three years proving that hard courts reward it. Rybakina's serve is the most direct counter to that on the tour, and she has already beaten Sabalenka in a Grand Slam final this year.
The head-to-head favours the defending champion: Sabalenka leads 10-7 across 17 meetings, and has beaten Rybakina twice this year — in the Miami semi-finals and the Indian Wells final. Rybakina's win came in the one that counted most, January's Australian Open final, where Sabalenka led 3-0 in the deciding set and lost anyway. That was her third defeat in four Grand Slam finals.
Rybakina is not treating the ranking as the prize. "It's just a number right now, my goal is to win the tournaments which I play," she said before the semi-final. Afterwards she was blunt about her own performance: she needs to "step my game up", serve better, stay aggressive and go for her shots.
What Rybakina showed against Gauff may matter more than either. Losing the first set to an American in New York, then winning two tight sets against the noise, is not a description of a player relying on power alone.
Saturday's showpiece pits the outgoing world number one against the incoming one, with three-in-a-row on one side and a first New York title on the other. Sabalenka has the record in this stadium. Rybakina has the ranking, and the more recent win.
